This Sunday, stars will gather at the Beverly Hilton Hotel for the 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards. Some will win. Many may be insulted by host Ricky Gervais. It promises to be a rollicking time — as Globes ceremonies often are. Here's hoping that nominated besties Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Schumer are seated at the same table. That will be a hoot.
But what do the Globes actually mean? The awards are handed out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of some 90 foreign journalists. That means the people choosing the Globes winners aren't the same industry insiders voting on who will get Oscars, so they're a less reliable predictor of Academy Award winners than the guilds. Still, the Globes are often where frontrunners cement their status by winning people over with charming speeches. In this up-in-the air race, anything can help.
So, who will go home with a trophy? Will Leo start demolishing the competition? Will Spotlight triumph? The ceremony airs at 8 p.m. EST on NBC. For now, here are our educated guesses, which you should feel free to use when devising your own strategy for winning your Globes pool. Onward!
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Room
Will Win: Spotlight
This is a tough category filled with films that are almost impossible to compare. Carol is a quiet love story of simmering desire. Room is a harrowing two-hander about a woman and her son held in captivity. Mad Max: Fury Road is an intense, visually stunning action blockbuster. The Revenant is an arduous tale of survival. But I would bet the prize goes to Spotlight, the smart, riveting procedural about the Boston Globe journalists who uncovered the extent of the Catholic Church’s sex abuse scandal.
Photo: Courtesy of Open Road Films.
Best Motion Picture, Comedy Or Musical
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck
Will Win: The Big Short
This is a strange category packed with straight-up comedies ( Trainwreck and Spy) as well as movies that only really qualify as comedies at the Globes ( The Big Short, The Martian, and Joy). The Big Short is, yes, funny, but it also scares the shit out of audiences by explaining how the economy collapsed in 2008. It’s bolstered by one great performance after another. If the Hollywood Foreign Press truly wants to honor a straightforward comedy, they would pick either Trainwreck or Spy, but I don't foresee that happening.
Photo: Moviestore/REX Shutterstock.
Best Actress In A Motion Picture, Drama
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
It’s a murderers' row of great performances here, but I see Saoirse Ronan taking the prize. Vanity Fair ’s Mike Hogan wrote that the movie “sweetly evokes the same transatlantic passage that many H.F.P.A. voters have made” when predicting that the film would be nominated for Best Picture. While that didn’t come to pass, I think that logic still stands for a Ronan win for best actress.
Photo: Courtesy of Fox Searchlight.
Best Actor In A Motion Picture, Drama
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, T he Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
This where the Leo awards-train starts. Be ready.
Photo: Courtesy of 20th Century Fox.
Best Actress In A Motion Picture, Musical Or Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Lawrence is the conventional pick for this prize. Remember, the HFPA loves her. She beat Lupita Nyong’o for supporting actress at the Globes in 2014. If it was my choice, however, I’d give it to Lily Tomlin in Grandma for her wonderful combination of wisdom and vulnerability.
Photo: Courtesy of 20th Century Fox.
Best Actor In A Motion Picture, Musical Or Comedy
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
Will Win: Matt Damon, The Martian
Two of the performances on this list are from movies no one is talking about (Al Pacino in Danny Collins and Mark Ruffalo in Infinitely Polar Bear). That makes it a competition between two of The Big Short ’s players (Steve Carell and Christian Bale) and The Martian ’s Matt Damon. Considering The Big Short is an ensemble piece, I think that Carell and Bale cancel each other out, leaving the field clear for Damon to take the prize. He was on Mars alone, after all.
Photo: Courtesy of 20th Century Fox.
Best Supporting Actress In A Motion Picture
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Will Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Winslet is the only performer in this category who I think is a lock for an Oscar nomination. If there's a surge of affection for Trumbo, Helen Mirren could surprise, but I think it's Winslet's to lose. Jennifer Jason Leigh's work in The Hateful Eight is too controversial, given charges that the character is a misogynistic creation. Jane Fonda's turn in Youth is essentially a cameo. I would love to see Alicia Vikander win for playing the robot Ava in Ex Machina, but I think I'll have to settle for the nomination.
Photo: Francois Duhamel/REX Shutterstock.
Best Supporting Actor In A Motion Picture
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
This, I think, is really a competition between Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies and Sylvester Stallone in Creed. Somehow, I think the sentimental pull of Stallone's return to Rocky will outweigh the impact of Rylance (primarily a stage actor) for members of the HFPA.
Photo: Courtesy of Warner Bros.
Best Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott: The Martian
Will Win: Todd Haynes, Carol
This very well could be a year when Best Picture and Best Director do not match up — at the Oscars or the Globes. Carol may not be populist enough to win the top prize, but the HFPA will honor the film with a win for Haynes' beautiful vision.
Photo: Gregory Pace/REX Shutterstock.
Best Animated Feature Film
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
Anomalisa
Will Win: Inside Out
Come on! The only legitimate challenger to Disney's Inside Out is Charlie Kaufman's Anomalisa. But will Kaufman's existential, stop-motion movie really best Pixar's latest colossus, which deals with despair in the most moving, accessible way? No. It won't.
Photo: Courtesy of Disney.
Best Motion Picture, Foreign Language
The Brand New Testament
The Club
The Fencer
Mustang
Son of Saul
Will Win: Son of Saul
A first feature from Hungarian director László Nemes, Son of Saul follows a Jewish man in Auschwitz who is a member of the Sonderkommando, which led other Jews to their deaths. It's one of the breakout foreign films of the year.
Photo: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics.
Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Emma Donoghue, Room
Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
Charles Randolph & Adam McKay, The Big Short
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Will Win: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
Spotlight rests on the back of Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer's detailed, well-researched screenplay. That's why it will beat contributions from the likes of Aaron Sorkin and Quentin Tarantino.
Photo: Moviestore Collection/REX Shutterstock.
Best Original Song
"Love Me Like You Do" — Fifty Shades of Grey
"One Kind of Love" — Love & Mercy
"See You Again" — Furious 7
"Simple Song #3 — Youth
"Writing's on the Wall" — Spectre
Will Win: "See You Again" — Furious 7
Back in 2014, the song "Ordinary Love" by U2 from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom beat Frozen 's "Let It Go." That's just to say that anything can happen. However, "See You Again" is not only a genuine hit — it was a song of the summer, after all — it's also a heartfelt tribute to Paul Walker.
Photo: Courtesy of Universal.
Best Original Score
Carter Burwell, Carol
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs
Ryuichi Sakamoto & Alva Noto, The Revenant
Will Win: Carter Burwell, Carol
Carter Burwell is a composer who's never quite gotten his due. Despite composing the music for Fargo and other Coen brothers classics, he's yet to be nominated for an Oscar. That will change this year, thanks to his resonant score for Carol. He'll walk away with the Globe for sure.
Best TV Drama
Empire
Game of Thrones
Mr. Robot
Narcos
Outlander
Will Win: Mr. Robot
Perhaps this is a bit of wishful thinking, but hear me out. The HFPA loves to honor the hottest thing in TV, and while there are a bunch of new series nominated ( Empire, Narcos, and Outlander) I think they’ll pick the trendy, cerebral Mr. Robot.
Photo: Courtesy of USA Network.
Best TV Series, Comedy Or Musical
Casual
Mozart in the Jungle
Orange Is the New Black
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Veep
Will Win: Transparent
I’m expecting a repeat winner here. The HFPA nominated some wild cards in this category, including Amazon’s Mozart in the Jungle and Hulu’s Casual. But it’s hard to see them ignoring the second season of this groundbreaking, critically adored show.
Photo: Courtesy of Amazon.
Best Actress In A TV Series, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Will Win: Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Remember, it is the Hollywood Foreign Press, so there is a chance one of the non-Americans, like Caitriona Balfe ( Outlander) or Eva Green ( Penny Dreadful) could take this category. The HPFA didn’t award Viola Davis last year, though her stirring speech at the Emmys may convince voters to give her the prize this time around. Even so, my bet is Taraji P. Henson for creating an iconic character on 2015’s biggest small-screen sensation, Empire.
Photo: Courtesy of Fox.
Best Actor In A TV Series, Drama
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Wagner Moura, Narcos
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Will Win: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
The HFPA could be sentimental and give Jon Hamm a swan song trophy for the final season of Mad Men. But Hamm hasn’t won at the Golden Globes since 2008. I suspect the fan fervor for Mr. Robot could carry into this category, and Rami Malek would win for playing the tortured hero, Elliot Alderson.
Photo: Courtesy of USA.
Best Actress In A TV Series, Comedy
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Jamie Lee Curtis, S cream Queens
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Will Win: Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
I could very well see any of these actresses winning, including Gina Rodriguez, who accepted last year. Still, I think it goes to Lily Tomlin, a double nominee. Clearly the love for Tomlin is there.
Photo: Courtesy of Netflix.
Best Actor In A TV Series, Comedy
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Rob Lowe, The Grinder
Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Will Win: Aziz Ansari, Master of None
While I suspect that Transparent will repeat a win in the comedy TV series category, I'm not sure that star Jeffrey Tambor will be as lucky. Instead, I think this is where a new critically acclaimed comedy will get its due, and Aziz Ansari will be victorious as the star and creator of Master of None.
Photo: Courtesy of Netflix.
Best TV Limited Series/Motion Picture
American Crime
American Horror Story: Hotel
Fargo
Flesh and Bone
Wolf Hall
Will Win: Wolf Hall
Last year, this award went to Fargo, and FX's crime show arguably deserves another shot at the prize. But the HFPA will likely leave the Midwest for Henry VIII's England and Wolf Hall prestige excellence.
Photo: Courtesy of PBS.
Best Actress In A Limited Series/TV Movie
Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
Sarah Hay, Flesh and Bone
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Queen Latifah, Bessie
Will Win: Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
It's hard to imagine the HFPA being able to resist the star power of Kirsten Dunst, who gave one of her best performances in years as a hairdresser who gets mixed up in nasty crime.
Photo: Courtesy of FX.
Best Actor In A Limited Series/TV Movie
Idris Elba, Luther
Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
David Oyelowo, Nightingale
Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
Patrick Wilson, Fargo
Will Win: David Oyelowo, Nightingale
I'm just about to throw up my hands with this category. Anything could very well happen here. But David Oyelowo is a compelling one-man show in HBO's Nightingale.
Photo: Courtesy of HBO.
Best Supporting Actress In A Series, Limited Series, Or Movie
Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Regina King, American Crime
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Judith Light, T ransparent
Will Win: Regina King, American Crime
King was the surprise winner at the Emmys. Don't expect her to be a surprise here.
Photo: Courtesy of ABC.
Best Supporting Actor In A Series, Limited Series, Or Movie
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Damien Lewis, Wolf Hall
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Tobias Menzies, Outlander
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Will Win: Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
While Bloodline may not have the fandom of some of the other shows represented, Aussie actor Mendelsohn is being recognized at last.
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